Are moderates moving into "repeal" camp...?

An interesting poll came out this morning which shows support for repealing the recently passed health care bill is gaining, not losing support (58% favor repeal compared to 38% not in favor of repeal). For more insight into the upcoming legal battles, I would point you to our multi-part introspective analysis here and here. The purpose of the legal analysis is to discuss the potential weight, if any, already filed lawsuits may have. I look forward to the conclusion.

Back to the poll. We're cautious about reading too much into polls, particularly the headline numbers as they can differ wildly. For an idea, Stu Rothenberg gives a concise example of how different polls of the same Senate race can show a completely different picture. What is important are the internals (ie, the numbers that make up the headline number), and the internals of Rasmussen's recent poll depict two important things: 1) there is a +18 point intensity gap between those that strongly favor repeal compared to those that strongly oppose repeal; and 2) moderate voters are moving into the "repeal" camp.

Let's take each point separately.

1) "There is a +18 point intensity gap between those that strongly favor repeal compared to those that strongly oppose repeal".

Pundits often talk about "intensity gaps" as vital to the success of any election cycle. Intensity gaps can be broad based (ie, in favor / against a given party) or specific (ie, in favor / against a given policy). At the risk of stating the obvious, the higher the motivation, the increased likelihood a given bloc of voters will vote (of course, this assumes candidates' messages are aligned with the issues).

2) "Moderate voters are moving into the "repeal" camp."

According to Rasmussen, "[e]ighty-eight percent (88%) of Republicans and 54% of voters not affiliated with either major party favor repeal." This does not bode well for the Administration's strategy of limiting its losses in November by "rallying the base".

According to a recent Gallup poll 40% of the electorate is conservative, 20% is liberal, and 37% is moderate.

The implication is 40% of the electorate is considered to be in the Republican base, while only 20% of the electorate is in the Democrat base. Winning moderate support is imperative to a successful "base" strategy. It's a large reason Obama won in 2008 (there was also an enormous intensity gap) and it's a huge reason Democrats should be worried come November.

On a side note, voters are starting to associate the health care bill as being bad for the economy, which is not good for those who supported it, particularly since the economy is the most important issue as November inches closer. "Seventy-six percent (76%) of Republicans believe repeal would be good for the economy, while 59% of Democrats believe it would be bad. Among those not affiliated with either political party, 47% believe repeal would be good for the economy, and 29% believe it would be bad." Adding salt to the ever increasing Democrat wound is the second most important issue for voters: health care.

The bottom line is really three-fold: there is a large intensity gap favoring repeal; swing voters are moving into the repeal "camp"; and the economy and health care are no longer exclusive of one another.